Take the time to read and comprehend Jeffrey Rogers Hummel’s article, Why Default on U.S. Treasuries is Likely and you will come to understand the motivation that will drive politics over the next several years. Hummel describes two firewalls separating us from default:

• The first is the trust funds of Medicare and Social Security. Tax income into these two programs is expected to be outstripped by claims in 2017 and 2037, respectfully. Once this happens the Fed will have to dip into general revenue – thus depriving politicians the largess they are famous for tossing about. And, if investors in U.S. Treasuries sense weakness they will demand a risk premium. If this happens Hummel then considers a collapse similar to that of the Soviet Union a possible scenario.




• The second firewall involves hyperinflation and is a resulting choice between preserving the value of the dollar and defaulting on the debt. Hummel predicts that the Feds would choose to save the value of the dollar and would therefore default.

Why is a single-payer plan sacrosanct to liberals? Single-payer provides a form of dollar cost averaging whereby the unprofitable Medicare / Medicaid plans absorb the profitable private sector plans thus affording the financial cushion the Feds so desperately need.

Hummel concludes with:

What will ultimately kill the welfare State is that its centerpiece, government-provided social insurance, is simultaneously above reproach and beyond salvation. Fully-funded systems could have survived, but politicians had little incentive to enact them, and much less incentive to impose the huge costs of converting from pay-as-you-go. Whether this inevitable collapse of social democracies will ultimately be a good or bad thing depends on what replaces them.

Who holds the almost $12 trillion in US debt? $4.3 trillion is held by the US government. $4 trillion is held by the public (individuals, corporations, state or local governments) and $3.3 trillion is held by foreigners.

So, in the end, may the desperate motivation to enact ObamaCare really be to placate these debt holders? Said another way, is providing coverage to 47 million uninsured the goal or the excuse? What do you think?

In an interview with David Lionhardt of the New York Times, President Obama said the following with regard to end-of-life care:

“So that’s where I think you just get into some very difficult moral issues. But that’s also a huge driver of cost, right? I mean, the chronically ill and those toward the end of their lives are accounting for potentially 80 percent of the total health care bill out here. Well, I think that there is going to have to be a conversation that is guided by doctors, scientists, ethicists. And then there is going to have to be a very difficult democratic conversation that takes place.”

So, when President Obama says these words one could reasonably conclude that he is speaking of a new system of limiting care because Medicare and Medicaid already have an exclusion for “experimental and investigational” services (Section 411.15(o)).

What might such a system look like? We only have to look as far as the UK for the answer. Compare President Obama’s comments to the words found on the web page of National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), the rationing board for the NHS:

With the rapid advances in modern medicine, most people accept that no publicly funded healthcare system, including the NHS, can possibly pay for every new medical treatment which becomes available. The enormous costs involved mean that choices have to be made.

The NHS employ a tool called a QALY (quality-adjusted life years measurement) to help decide whether a person is deserving of a particular medical treatment. So, what we really are discussing is whether or not, as a society, we want ObamaCare to include a QALY-type system of limiting treatment and services to our citizens.

A person may look at a committee at a private insurer deciding on experimental or investigational medical treatments and equate that to a QALY system under ObamaCare but there are differences.

• Under a QALY system we are talking about denying to people proven treatments (read not experimental or investigational). Contrast that to a denial of payment for an experimental or investigational treatment. These would include procedures that have not been approved by the Food and Drug Administration or treatments that have not been proved effective in clinical studies.




• Frequency. The vast majority of people covered by private insurance are under age 65 (read much younger than today’s life expectancy of 77.9 years). Whereas, people on Medicare are quickly approaching or even exceeding 77.9. The introduction of a QALY-type system will, by its very nature, impact more senior citizens than the under age 65 crowd currently covered by private insurance.




• You can sue a private insurance company! When is the last time you heard of a successful suit against the Federal government? Private insurers have an incentive to make their product attractive to the buying public. A government-run, single-payer plan has no such worries.




• Look at what has happened in the UK. Britons were promised a plan of benefits. That became expensive and rationing ensued. People demanded that they have access to these denied treatments. So, now in the UK you get to pay the taxes for your “free” government insurance – and, if you want it (and can afford it) you can “top-up” and the government will allow you to pay for that life saving drug out of your own pocket!

Conclusion

A friend wrote, “…being skeptical of a public plan is not the same as being against health-care reform.” There are a number of things that can be done to make coverage more affordable and accessible. A QALY-type system of rationing care would come as a rude shock to Americans. We are a society of achievers who possess a “can-do” attitude. To throw up our hands and take an easy approach of just letting the government handle things is a mistake.

So, now that you understand the difference between “experimental and investigational” exclusions and a QALY system, when politicians speak of “cutting wasteful spending” be careful. They may be speaking of me-ma, you, your spouse or your child.

Isn’t it ironic that doctors will be paying the way to see more lower profit margin patients? Who knew that making health insurance affordable could be so expensive?

This legislation was a small, almost ignored part of the massive Tax Reform Act of 1986. In a nutshell, Section 89 was designed to:

• limit the tax-favored status of health benefits for “highly compensated” employees (those earning $50,000 or more),
• discourage employers from offering health plans that favored “highly compensated” employees, and
• extend health coverage to the uninsured.

Taxing the health benefits of “highly compensated” employees to fund benefits for the uninsured – sound familiar?

Once the Internal Revenue Service got around to writing the administrative rules for the law, Section 89 went from being ignored to the biggest issue in human resources. Employers were forced to conduct complicated non-discrimination tests – and employees were exposed to taxes on their benefits.

The outrage was so great that in late 1989 Section 89 was repealed with a House vote of 390 to 36.

So now twenty years later as Congress and President Obama consider taxing health benefits you should remember Section 89. Remember that the paragraphs of legislation signed by a president become reams of policies and procedures once touched by the Internal Revenue Service. Remember that it is you, the employer, who must comply these new rules. And, it will be your clients and employees who will bear the ultimate cost.

Contact your senators and congressman and let them know what you think.

38 trillion reasons to nationalize healthcare

In 1965, Medicare was signed into law by President Johnson.  Medicare is the government-run, single-payer health plan which covers the country’s elderly population. 

People think that their Medicare payroll taxes are held in some "lockbox" and invested until it is time to retire and collect benefits.  Sadly, Medicare is run as a "pay-as-you-go" system.  The taxes taken from your paycheck today are spent on a retiree’s healthcare costs tomorrow. 

Because there are fewer and fewer workers to support an increase number of retirees Medicare is approaching insolvency.  It would reportedly take $38 trillion to fully fund Medicare.  Is that likely with the US GDP at $13.8 trillion?

So, if you are the Federal government, and your Bernie Madoff moment is less than 8 years away what do you do?

Nationalize Healthcare

Make no mistake, Medicare for All – a single-payer system – is their stated goal.  Your ability to obtain affordable, quality healthcare will be dependent on the government.

Former White House economic adviser Keith Hennessey has summarized the competing House versions here.  The Wall Street Journal reports that Obama wants to raise $634 billion in new taxes to pay for the expansion.  Here are some highlights of what we might expect:

• A government mandate that employers provide and contribute towards their employees’ health insurance or be subject to a tax penalty.  Think of your neighborhood restaurant.  To cover the extra cost for health insurance they will charge more for your meal.  Could you consider this new cost a tax increase?  How many people will be laid off because of this mandate?
• Tax employer-sponsored health insurance.  Currently the value of health insurance is not taxable to either employees or employers.  This benefit may be eliminated or reduced.
• Increase sin taxes – new taxes on sugary drinks, tobacco and alcohol products.
• Higher premiums for Medicare recipients.
• Reduced payments to medical providers.  If doctors and hospitals receive less payment will patients receive less care?  Will there be less incentive for experienced doctors to remain in practice?  Will the innovation of life saving techniques and products suffer because of a diminished profit potential?
• Reduced tax advantages for health savings accounts, flexible spending accounts and itemized medical deductions.
• A government mandate that each individual have insurance – or be subject to a tax penalty.  Note that the LA Times reports the insurance industry is receptive to this mandate.
• Add a health insurance "exchange" where people can compare and purchase a new government sponsored "public plan" alongside  products from private insurers.  This public plan is a major bone of contention between Democrats and Republicans.  It is described as the proverbial camel’s nose that could lead to a single-payer system in the US.  I wrote about Georgia’s brief consideration of an exchange here.
• Guarantee issue and guarantee renewability of insurance policies.
• No exclusion for pre-existing conditions.
• A prohibition of insurers from charging higher premiums based on health status.  This seems ideal, but understand then that healthy people will significantly subsidize the premiums of the unhealthy.

Could the medicine be worse than the disease?

An Alternative

So our politicians have gotten underwater to the tune of $38 trillion.   The government currently covers about 92 million Americans through Medicare, Medicaid and Tricare.  Should they be trusted to provide quality coverage for the other 208 million?

If you were to get yourself in deep debt, what options would you have but to reduce costs and live within your means.  Maybe our Federal government should take steps to reduce its own footprint and properly fund its obligations (Medicare, in this case). 

Conclusion

If you are so inspired, contact your senators and congressman and let them know what you think.  Opposing the "public plan" option, in my mind, is our best bet in maintaining competition and quality of care in our healthcare system.

Responsibility combined with inaction equals liability.

Basically, the law mandates that certain employees who were involuntarily terminated between September 1, 2008 (yes, 2008) and December 31, 2009 be made to pay only 35% of their state continuation premiums starting March 1, 2009. The special open enrollment provision in the law applies only to COBRA groups, not those subject to state continuation.

So, if you have less than 20 employees and have terminated or will terminate someone do you know how to properly offer them continued health coverage? If not, let me know and we will give you a hand.

Combine that news with the recent Milliman report which shows that over $88 billion dollars is cost shifted from government sponsored plans (Medicare, Medicaid/SCHIP) to private sector plans and you can easily see that the doctors who treat these new SCHIP patients will be getting a pay cut.

About now you are asking, “What the heck is cost shifting and why should I care?” Let’s say a doctor would normally charge $125 for an office visit. SCHIP, however, will only reimburse the doctor $100 for the visit. In order to make up the loss, the doctor charges $150 to the patient with private insurance. Thus, in essence, cost shifting is a tax on people with private insurance (individual medical policies or ones offered through a person’s employer).

On another note, I’m still trying to figure out the math on this. Please let me know if you find an error in my logic:

$33,000,000,000 – cost of program, divided by
4.5 years – equals
$7,333,333,333 – annual costs to cover 4 million kids through SCHIP.

But, one can purchase an individual Aetna policy for $78/month ($936/year), so correct me if I’m wrong, but couldn’t the government the go into the private sector and cover over 7.8 million kids for the same amount of money?

$7,333,333,333 – annual cost to cover 4 million kids through SCHIP, divided by
$936 – annual cost to cover an individual under an Aetna policy
7,835,000 – kids covered by a private sector solution

So, it looks like our elected officials have taken a route that will grow government and cover fewer of the people they say they are trying to help. At the same time, (i) doctors will get less reimbursement for the patients who switched from private insurance to SCHIP, (ii) many doctors will quit seeing Medicaid/SCHIP patients because they get lower compensation, (iii) individuals and employers who have private insurance policies can expect an incremental increase in their premium rates, and (iv) taxpayers can expect a bill from the government when this underfunded coverage needs another cash infusion.

What’s there not to like? Your thoughts?

To date Principal Life Insurance Company has rented the Private Healthcare Systems (PHCS) network of doctors and hospitals. While this has been a beneficial relationship one can see how owning your own network rather than renting one may produce some badly needed efficiencies.

Principal Edge, as the new network is called, will be installed as the default provider network for small- to medium-sized employer clients – it’s not a Medicare Advantage network! It is designed to be provider-focused and bring unique features to the doctor community. Don Weitzel, who is now the President of Principal Edge Network Georgia, is busy recruiting medical providers to the new panel. Principal hopes to have the new network in place in the last quarter of 2009.

Mike Fleischman, a principal with the consulting firm Gates Moore & Company, brought over twenty years of experience in provider / insurer contract negotiations to the table. Mike was able to represent the concerns of the provider community in that insurers must be more responsive in timeliness of payment and simplification of reimbursement schedules.

Principal Edge seems to accommodate these issues in its promise to pay providers within 15 calendar days (not work days). Failing to do so may result in a penalty being paid to the provider. Innovative thinking for an insurance company!

If there is a take-away for the doctor community it is to seriously consider signing up for this network. Like I said before, it is not another doomed Medicare Advantage plan asking for your time. Principal Life is a solid company that can bring thousands of paying patients to your door. And, you know the payor is Principal, not a nameless TPA tucked behind a rented network.

As an insurance agency we are looking forward to a more competitively priced medical plan to show our clients. Hopefully we can put a quote in front of you someday soon!

The answer has been 18 to 36 months depending on the qualifying event. Now, however, under President Obama’s plan the answer could be when the participant becomes eligible for Medicare (age 65 to 67)!

As part of the stimulus bill, Congress (H.R. 598 and S. 29) is considering proposals that would force taxpayers to subsidize COBRA premiums for those who are out-of-work. A couple of the highlights:

Employees who are at least age 55 or had 10 or more years of service would be allowed to stay on the group plan under COBRA beyond the typical 18 month deadline. This coverage could continue until any other termination reason occurs namely Medicare entitlement or failure to pay COBRA premiums.

The new law will require taxpayers to provide premium assistance (65 percent of the COBRA premium) for up to 12 months for those who elected COBRA from September 1, 2008, through December 31, 2009. It would apply to employment terminations for reasons other than gross misconduct. Employers will go through an awkward system of paying the premium to the insurer and then getting a credit on payroll taxes.

Sadly, many employees don’t appreciate how much their employer pays for health insurance on their behalf until they get that first COBRA premium bill. Yes, insurance is expensive, but then so is that unexpected $50,000 surgery!

Eventually the Federal stimulus bill funds will dry up and politicians will be forced to take away the benefit or, more likely, make employers or the states subsidize COBRA premiums.

I predict that these changes proposed by Obama will drive up the cost of private health insurance and force more people onto taxpayer subsidized plans (COBRA, Medicaid, SCHIP) – all of which is a stated goal of those promoting nationalized health care.

Well, we did ask for change…